CLAWBACK
A product case study / concept demo
Tariff refund recovery

Your old invoices are a claim on cash.

The $100B tariff unwind is sending refunds to importers of record. But much of that money was passed downstream to you, one surcharge line at a time. Clawback reads your paid AP history, finds the tariff dollars you covered, and builds the evidence to get them back.

MERIDIAN COMPONENTS
Importer of record
INV2417
14 Nov 2025
Bill to: Apex Manufacturing
Machined housings, 4,200 units$463,000
Freight and handling$8,400
Tariff surcharge, Section 301, 10%$46,300
Expedite fee$1,250
TOTAL PAID, 12 Dec 2025$518,950
Refunded upstream · unrecovered

Paid a year ago. Closed in the ERP. Now worth $46,300.

The refunds are flowing to the wrong end of the supply chain.

When tariffs were struck down, the government began returning duties to the companies that paid them at the border: the importers of record. But across B2B supply chains, importers rarely absorbed the whole cost. They pushed it downstream through surcharges, duty line items, and contract price riders. Distributors billed manufacturers. Manufacturers ate it or passed it on again.

So the government to importer refund is only step one. Step two is a private reconciliation exercise worth billions: figuring out which refunded dollars actually belong farther down the chain. The evidence is not a customs filing. It is an invoice that was paid a year ago and closed in the ERP. No finance team is staffed to reread a year of AP history line by line. That is why the money sits unclaimed.

$100B
estimated U.S. tariff unwind now being returned
$9.6B
refunds already reported by 40+ S&P 500 companies
$2.1B
cash already received by importers, and moving now

This market has a clock on it.

Refund cash is landing this quarter. FedEx alone is disbursing $800M to shippers and customers starting this month. Every dollar that reaches an importer before its downstream customers assert a claim gets absorbed into earnings, and recovering it later means a fight instead of a reconciliation.

That gives this product a forcing function most B2B software never gets: a 12 to 18 month window where CFOs have a named, quantified pile of money to chase, and the side that shows up with invoice level evidence first wins. The buyer is the CFO, the pitch is found working capital, and the pricing writes itself: a contingency share of recovered dollars, so there is no budget fight and no risk to the customer.

Detection is AI. Dollars are deterministic.

Clawback turns a closed AP transaction into a live receivable in four moves. The model reads documents and proposes links. It never computes the claim: the math over confirmed links is plain arithmetic, so every dollar is auditable and defensible in a dispute.

STEP 1

Ingest

Pull paid invoices from the ERP, plus contracts, POs, and supplier email. No system migration: read only exports and connectors.

STEP 2

Detect

Classify every line item: an explicit tariff surcharge, a contract duty clause pass through, or no claim. Each call carries a confidence score.

STEP 3

Assemble

Link each claimable dollar to its evidence chain: the invoice line, the contract clause, and the upstream refund event. An analyst confirms.

STEP 4

Recover

Export the evidence package and demand letter, then track each claim from demand to cash. Clawback is paid a share of what comes back.

One pipeline from paid invoice to recovered cash.

The whole system runs on Vercel: Functions for ingestion and orchestration, Blob for raw documents, Claude through AI Gateway for extraction, Neon Postgres for the lineage graph, and Queues to run the pipeline durably at AP scale.

SOURCESPIPELINE ON VERCELOUTPUTSERP / AP exportpaid invoicesContracts + POsduty clausesSupplier emailsurcharge noticesRefund eventspublic filings, CBPINGESTFunctions + BlobEXTRACTClaude / AI GatewayREVIEWanalyst confirmsCLAIMS ENGINEdeterministic mathLINEAGE GRAPHNeon Postgres: dollar to clause to refundwrites linksreads evidenceEvidence packageinvoice, clause, refundDemand letterto the supplierRecovery trackerclaim to cash

The AI boundary

The model only extracts and classifies. It reads surcharge language, matches contract clauses, and proposes links with confidence scores. Low confidence routes to review, never silently into a claim.

The human gate

An analyst confirms proposed links before any dollar enters a claim. This is what makes the output usable in a commercial dispute instead of a model guess with a logo on it.

The moat

The lineage graph is the asset: every dollar tied to a clause and a refund event. Tariffs are the first use. Freight, fuel, and fee pass throughs run on the same rails later.

Watch detection run over a real looking AP slice.

Twelve paid invoices from five suppliers, the way they actually look: explicit surcharges, quiet contract riders, fuel surcharges that are not tariffs, and general price increases that claim nothing. Run detection, then open a claim to see the three part evidence package.

AP HISTORY / Apex Manufacturing / Oct 2025 to Feb 2026 / 12 invoices
InvoiceSupplierDateLine item detailAmountClassificationClaimable
INV2417Meridian Components14 Nov 2025Machined housings, 4,200 units. Tariff surcharge separately stated at 10%.$509,300Queued
INV2492Meridian Components09 Dec 2025Control boards. Line 4 reads tariff surcharge, Section 301.$309,650Queued
INV2560Meridian Components22 Jan 2026Sensor assemblies. Duty recovery line billed at cost.$350,900Queued
INV8811Vantage Industrial Supply02 Oct 2025Fasteners and fittings. Temporary price adjustment tied to MSA duty clause.$184,000Queued
INV8902Vantage Industrial Supply18 Dec 2025Hydraulic seals. Price rider references duties actually incurred.$127,500Queued
INV3308Cordell Metals27 Oct 2025Aluminum extrusions. Import duty surcharge itemized.$98,200Queued
INV3371Cordell Metals05 Feb 2026Sheet stock. General price increase, no duty language.$121,400Queued
INV5106Northfield Packaging11 Nov 2025Corrugated cartons. Domestic sourcing, no import exposure.$46,800Queued
INV5187Northfield Packaging20 Jan 2026Stretch film. Standard annual repricing.$33,150Queued
INV7742TriState Freight30 Sep 2025Linehaul services. Fuel surcharge, not a duty pass through.$58,900Queued
INV7801TriState Freight15 Dec 2025Drayage and detention. No tariff linkage found.$41,200Queued
INV2601Meridian Components19 Feb 2026Spare parts kit. Surcharge line removed after tariff unwind.$87,400Queued
Claimable across this AP slice
$0
Twelve real looking invoices, five months of AP history. Press run to watch detection work.

How this becomes a company.

Weeks 1 to 6 / Prove it

The concierge pilot

Take one manufacturer's AP export and run the pipeline with analysts in the loop end to end. Success is one recovered check. That check is the whole pitch deck.

Months 2 to 6 / Sell it

The recovery engine

Productize ingestion and detection, keep review human, sign customers on contingency. The tariff window does the demand generation. Target: mid market importers and manufacturers with $50M+ in exposed spend.

Year 2 / Keep it

The pass through ledger

Tag pass through costs at transaction time so the next reversal, audit, or dispute resolves automatically. Recovery is the wedge. The lineage layer is the durable business.

What is mocked hereThis page is a concept demo. The invoice data is fictional, detection is simulated in the browser, and no model calls run. Everything in the architecture section is buildable on Vercel today, and the demo shows exactly what the first real screen should do.